今年是暖冬还是冷冬？国家气候中心最新研判！
<div class="wx_rich_media_content" id="jsWxContainer"><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor"><section data-role="paragraph" style="height: 0px;"><br></section><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 2px;">近期，我国多地开启降温模式，大家在深秋感受到了冬的气息，纷纷讨论冷冬是否即将到来。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 2px;">关于冷冬的热议，离不开“幕后推手”拉尼娜。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 2px;">早在今年9月，世界气象组织就预测拉尼娜准备在秋季“返场”。</span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 2px;">许多人认为拉尼娜的出现，意味着冬天将变得更冷甚至带来超强寒潮，但拉尼娜与冷冬是否能完全画等号？</span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 2px;">它对气候变化究竟有哪些影响？</span><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 2px;">来看国家气候中心的分析。</span></p><p style="letter-spacing: 0.578px;"><br></p><section><section>https://picapp.jhrx.cn/forum/20241104090817front1_1_146362_lmgalEXZ-qq-xcvr3PKbjfcp0LMo.MP4?108</section><section><br></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 16px;">拉尼娜是指赤道中东太平洋大范围海表温度持续异常偏低，也就是连续6个月较常年偏低0.5℃的现象，它的出现常伴有热带大气环流的变化，例如风、气压和降水量的变化。与厄尔尼诺现象相反，拉尼娜对全球气候有相对短暂的降温效应。</span></section><p><span class="wxart_image" wx-style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:baseline;"></span></p><section style="line-height: 1.75em;"><p style="letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 16px;"><br></p></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 16px;">据统计，1951年至今发生了15次拉尼娜事件，1986年以前拉尼娜事件的当年，我国冬季均为冷冬，但在全球变暖的背景下，1986年以后拉尼娜事件当年，出现暖冬的频率增加。</span></section><p><span class="wxart_image" wx-style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:baseline;"></span></p><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-top: 24px;"><strong><span style="letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 16px;color: rgb(61, 170, 214);">拉尼娜其实并不意味着冷冬。我国冬季究竟是偏冷还是偏暖，与东亚冬季风强度密切相关，北极海冰、欧亚积雪等也起到重要作用。</span></strong><span style="letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 16px;">不过从统计数据来看，出现拉尼娜以后，我国冬季偏冷的概率更大一些。<strong><span style="color: rgb(61, 170, 214);">由于今年的拉尼娜可能是一个较弱的事件，它会在多大程度上影响这个冬季的气温，还有待观察。</span></strong></span></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-top: 24px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 16px;">就发生频率而言，厄尔尼诺发生不规律，大约每两到七年发生一次，通常在一年内迅速成熟并衰减。拉尼娜的强度通常比厄尔尼诺弱，但持续时间更长，通常能达到约9-12个月，有些甚至能持续两年以上，也就是所谓的多年期。2020年到2023年就发生了21世纪首次“三重”拉尼娜事件。</span></section><section data-tools="135编辑器" data-id="145054"><section style="margin: 10px auto;display: flex;justify-content: center;"><section><section style="width: 35px;margin-left: auto;margin-bottom: -24px;"><br></section><section><section style="margin-right: 10px;margin-left: 6px;"><section style="background-color: rgb(36, 97, 154);padding: 5px 20px;"><section style="font-size: 16px;text-align: center;color: #ffffff;"><strong data-brushtype="text">国家气候中心预测</strong></section></section><section style="width: 0px;height: 1px;border-right: 12px solid rgb(36, 97, 154);border-bottom: 7px solid transparent;margin-left: 14%;"><br></section></section></section></section></section></section><section style="line-height: 1.75em;"><br></section><ul data-source="cke" class="list-paddingleft-1" style="padding-left: 30px;list-style-position: outside;"><li><p style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong>未来拉尼娜连续发生的频率可能增加</strong></p></li></ul><p style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-top: 24px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 16px;">从全球范围来看，拉尼娜不算是大概率事件。在过去100年里，全球共发生了20次拉尼娜事件，其中10次为一年事件，10次为多年事件。但值得注意的是，多年期拉尼娜事件的确发生得越来越频繁了：自21世纪初以来，全球已发生5次多年期拉尼娜事件。</span></p><p><span class="wxart_image" wx-style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:baseline;"></span></p><section style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-top: 24px;"><span style="letter-spacing: 2px;font-size: 16px;">多年期拉尼娜事件由于对应着更强的海温异常，往往会对全球气候、环境及经济社会带来持续性和叠加性的破坏影响，并显著提高极端天气灾害的发生风险。这些观测事实揭示了目前多年期拉尼娜事件的加速趋势。</span></section><ul data-source="cke" class="list-paddingleft-1" style="padding-left: 30px;list-style-position: outside;"><li><p style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 24px;"><strong>今冬易出现阶段性强降温、强降雪</strong></p></li></ul><p><span class="wxart_image" wx-style="display:inline-block;vertical-align:baseline;"></span></p><p style="margin-top: 24px;line-height: 1.75em;"><span style="font-size: 16px;letter-spacing: 2px;color: rgb(61, 170, 214);"><strong>国家气候中心预测，今年秋冬季我国较易出现阶段性强降温、强降雪天气。</strong></span></p><ul class="list-paddingleft-1" style="padding-left: 30px;list-style-position: outside;"><li><p style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 24px;">建议农业农村部门加强对设施农业和畜牧业冻害、雪灾和大风灾害的防范；</p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 24px;">交通部门做好低温强降雪大风灾害风险预案；</p></li><li><p style="line-height: 1.75em;margin-bottom: 24px;">相关地区和部门根据灾害监测预警信息及时做好设备除冰、道路除雪等维护、维修工作。</p></li></ul><section data-role="outer" label="edit by 135editor" style="caret-color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0); 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visibility: visible;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; outline: 0px; visibility: visible; text-align: left;"><hr style="color: rgb(34, 34, 34); font-size: 15px; -webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.544px; line-height: 25.6px; visibility: visible; font-family: -apple-system-font, system-ui, Arial, sans-serif;"><section style="-webkit-tap-highlight-color: transparent; outline: 0px; letter-spacing: 0.578px; widows: 1; visibility: visible; line-height: 1.75em; min-height: 1em;"><span style="letter-spacing: 0.5px; font-family: -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, Arial, sans-serif; font-weight: normal;"><font size="1" style="" color="#696969">来源/湖北发布、央视新闻客户端</font></span></section></section></section></section></section></section></h2></section></section><p style="display: none;"><mp-style-type data-value="3"></mp-style-type></p></div><p></p> 听砖渣的，面都要过错滴，姐姐！ 听砖渣的，年都要过错滴，姐姐！ 这说了些么事？ 今天11月5号中午还穿短袖{:216:} 听专家的，年都要过错滴，姐姐！这话，是倔强先说的。
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